After a string of exits in the last decade, OPEC is down to just 12 members. The overall direction of the oil industry as well as OPEC’s failings make it likely this trend will continue and another member state will leave in the near future. If this is true, who will it be and why? Let’s examine who is most likely to become the next OPEC departure.
While plenty of countries have quarrels with OPEC leadership or issues with quotas, an OPEC exit requires a unique set of political and economic issues that only one country currently fulfills. The United Arab Emirates currently meets these, through its continued noncompliance and political breakdowns with both OPEC and Saudi Arabia. The UAE has ambitions of quickly diversifying that involve volumes of oil exports way above current quotas, and they’re not shy about expressing their problems with both the quotas, and OPEC+.
This is accentuated by the recent Saudi-Emirati breakup, in which the long-time allies have turned bitter rivals, with competing visions for The Middle East. This came to a head in the Yemeni civil war earlier this year, and has continued to escalate. The two countries seem to be building competing coalitions for the future of The Arabian peninsula, gathering allies that oppose each other like India and Pakistan.
These factors are a proven motivator for OPEC exits. The UAE’s neighbor and fellow gulf state Qatar left for extremely similar reasons. They wanted to produce above quotas, felt their interests were underrepresented with the creation of OPEC+, and had a political breakdown with Saudi Arabia. It stands to reason that if the Saudi-Emirati relationship doesn’t recover soon, a UAE exit from OPEC is on the horizon.